Area 4 Precinct Outliers

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Source: PA Dept. of State precinct returns & registration files, 2018–2025

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Where to put volunteer hours

Persuasion-proven

LP 3-3 · UP Oaks · Mingo 1 · LP 1-2 · Mont Clare · Worcester E1

Independents here already cross over at Area 4’s highest rates — in every environment. Canvassing and persuasion have demonstrated return.

Realigning

LP 3-4 · Worcester E3

Registration is moving Democratic fast (+11 and +8 points since 2018). Registration drives and new-Democrat welcome outreach compound an existing trend.

Turnout-swing

Royersford 2 · Collegeville 2

Performance depends on who shows up. Royersford 2 beats expectations by 7+ in quiet judicial years, is average in presidential years. GOTV territory.

Lower-return flag: Limerick 5 is the only precinct that under-performs its registration in every election. Persuasion investment there faces the steepest odds in Area 4.

Honest caveat: six elections shows a consistent pattern, not a cause. Ground-truth these precincts before committing serious volunteer hours.

Explore every precinct

All 34 Area 4 precincts, ranked. Click a column header to sort; click a row for that precinct’s full history.

Registration D% (dashed) vs. actual vote D%

Performance vs. expectations, by election

Methodology & sources

Data. Precinct-level election returns and voter registration counts from the Pennsylvania Department of State bulk data portal, for the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial, 2020 and 2024 presidential, and 2023 and 2025 statewide judicial elections. All 34 Area 4 precinct boundaries were verified stable across the full period.

Expected vote. For each election, we fit the county-wide relationship between a precinct’s Democratic registration share and its Democratic vote share across all ~430 Montgomery County precincts (pooled least-squares with election fixed effects; R² = 0.92). Each election is measured against its own contemporaneous registration snapshot — not today’s. “Performance vs. expectations” is the gap between a precinct’s actual Democratic vote share and what the county-wide pattern predicts for a precinct with its registration, in that election.

Races used. President (2020, 2024), Governor (2018, 2022), PA Supreme Court (2023), and PA Commonwealth Court (2025) — the highest-profile D-vs-R contest on each ballot.

Caveats. Six elections reveal consistent patterns but cannot establish causes. Typical precinct noise is about ±3.5 points in any single election, which is why we emphasize the six-election average and consistency rather than any single result. Independent methodology review was performed on the model specification. This page contains only precinct-level aggregates of public records — no individual voter data.